In early 2022, I contributed to the Open Banking Excellence’s Blog. The post looked at what I believed would be the major trends in payment and security for 2022. Now, as the year ends, I want to revisit those original predictions to see how well or how badly they turned out.
Our first prediction was that the proposal by the EU Commission for a “trusted and secure Digital Identity for all Europeans” would lead to an increased focus on digital identity. This has come true, as new prototypes and pilots have been launched over the last few months, including one led from Norway. However, as our predictions from October 2021 explained, this is a prolonged process where success depends on network effects. In other words, there won’t be a lot of users before there are many services, and there won’t be a lot of services before there are many users for the same services.
Our second prediction was that the competition from neobanks and other challenger banks would continue. This has come true, with an estimated 30% year-over-year rise in users during 2022. Of course, if the focus on digital identity continues, we might see even faster growth in this sector, as having a digital identity makes signing up for new services easier.
As for the following two predictions, I focused on the traditional banking sector. The first one was on the sunsetting of 3D Secure 1 for online card payments, which is almost complete. While the process has not been without issues, that is a topic for another post.
The other prediction was that more merchants would move to enable “app-to-pay”. This was partly to make the payment process smoother for their customers and partly to allow new features. Looking at statistics, you will find around a 9% global rise for wallet-based app-to-pay over Q2 alone, so this prediction also has come true.
Our final prediction was that there would be changes in how cryptocurrencies were implemented and that there would be new government initiatives to restrict at least the worst environmental consequences of mining. With Ethereum successfully moving to proof-of-stake in September and the new EU regulation announced a few months ago, this is perhaps the prediction we’ve had the most luck with.
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What is clear is that I needed to be more radical with my predictions. For example, I surely didn’t see that crypto would crash as spectacularly as it did or the whole story around FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried. Or, on the same note, a former US president would launch his own NFT.
Alas, everything is more evident in hindsight, including the rise in interest rates brought on to stop the loans and the following contraction in investments. Nevertheless, with a new blog post on 2023’s predictions scheduled for the new year, I may have another chance to nail or miss a year of predictions.